Financials

FNM and FRE are history IMO. LEH, today, is way up, but on speculation (just like so many other financials so many other times). The problem is, with all these trains wrecking, we're holding firm at 11.5 DOW. Buyers are considering all this 'priced in' IMO.

Two scenarios I see unfolding by years end are:

1) Irrational 'bottom is in' mentality continues and we kick around nearly the same levels with a few swings in between. Basically what we're doing right now. This will not be good for gold or stocks, as we'll end up in the same place we started. Numbers are ignored, and in reality numbers are trounced by confidence ALWAYS. Even if we print a million jobless claims, yet people's confidence is high for next week...we can go up.

2) We go down hard. Yes, HARD. If it's going to happen it's going to happen soon IMO. Money is looking for somewhere to go, and it's not finding any safe haven for more than a few weeks...unless another 'bubble' can be created, I think the bottom falls out and people start moving into cash. All the new 'bailouts' seem to be foreign wealth trying to gobble up our skeletons of companies now. This is bad. Very bad. We've sent so much of our money overseas now, and really, the only thing that any foreign investor is going to want now is control of our companies. If those foreign investors decide to stay the hell out of our mess until it's truly bottomed, we break 10k DOW. If they do, however, put their vast stores of cash (yes, they have boatloads of money) into our co's, this dance will go on for a long time. All IMO of course.