Good luck on the test tonite.
Just read through the 200 or so I-Hub messages since the call and we're getting a lot of bailing out, so if the PPS holds then you know the MM's are scooping up them shares.
If I was an investment firm I would definitely put some money to work here (after sending someone to visit of course). Do you guys know how many of our dear miners are still turning losses and trading at $4, $5, $6 and even higher. I realize most own instead of lease, but the lease royalties are so minimal/ton if this can be profitable in the 3rd quarter, there's no reason we shouldn't be at least .32/share.
1500 tons/day * $25 profit (I don't believe the $40 going around) = $37,500 * 6 = 225,000 profit/week * 13 weeks/quarter = roughly $3 million profit/quarter * 4 quarters = $12 million profit/year
363 million O/S / $12 million = .03 cents/share EPS This is not including second mine and using $25/ton not the $40-44 going around. If so then approx $17 million profit/year
363 million O/S / $17 million = .045 cents/share EPS
Now this is a POSITIVE number. There are $5 coal/gold/silver stocks out there not showing a positive EPS. And we belong in the .02 area?????? ABSOLUTELY NOT!!!!!!
Agreed growth must be proven, but at some point this stock's price will represent it's future value as all stocks are.
Any opinions??????
7 comments:
I adjusted your numbers, but using your methodology I get 1.2 cents per share:
5 days not 6 days per week.
824,000,000 diluted weighted average shares outstanding.
1.2 cents per share. Conservatively calculated. If P/E is 10, then stock is worth 12 cents. Unless I'm an idiot, which is entirely possible. Your points about PM miners is well taken. QMNM has the drag of being in Chapter 11, a proven non-performer.
Joe,
I am disgusted with almost everything I own right now. How gold is getting crushed right now is amazing. I honestly think people are scared of commodities in general right now, and this is not making people run towards a coal penny stock.
I am going to go short on almost all my positions in gold and commodities.
I have gotten crushed on some CHK calls that I had bought...crushed. Probably going to lose 2K on 20 calls. Pretty sickening.
All of this voliatility reeks of manipulation from equity standpoints and dollar intervention IMO. The market is forward looking for sure, but there is no clarity.
Gold is being held down through dollar manipulation. I am not a tin foil guy...I know markets go down, but when they go down when they should be rallying, it should tell us something.
How'd you get the 824,000,000 O/S?? I argued that point last week on Yahoo and was told by all that it was the 3XX million??????
Also I did see somewhere that the crew from Whitestar was going to work 6 days a week since they are paid on a per ton basis ($32/ton)
As for the 10X earnings, definitely can't be used, as stocks in this sector range from 50X to 400X to INF X for the negative earners. P/E ratios are useless for mining companies IMO.
Bottom line is the stock will find it's own price.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/
board.aspx?board_id=4650
Cut and paste both lines onto one in your browser.
*Diluted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding: 824,657,317
Authorized: 975,000,00 Outstanding: 363,128,219 as of 5/15/08
*The Diluted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding is the number of shares of common stock that would be outstanding if all convertible securities were converted to common stock, on average over the period.
I don't know about the structure of the other convertible securities so I used the above number. Another conservatism, probably wrong. Cool that they will work 6 days, they can make a shitload of money if the crew size is what I think it is.
In any event, my plan is to stand back and watch the man run his coal mine.
Gotcha, you're using the O/S if the creditors convert. Either way, a positive EPS coal miner does not belong under $1 IMO!!
I still say it's a winner by years end.
Not going to be the quick pop we had hoped for, but I think we will all still make a pretty penny off it. :)
Gonna run my calc's tomorrow and see what I get and will post....
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